The Talk

While predicting the future may be a fool's errand, considering alternative trajectories over time based on long term trends and contemporary developments in the economy and society offers insight. Four scenarios represent plausible paths for the evolution of material flows in East and South Asia starting from the current economic-social-political milieu. Each scenario offers a 2050 vision for East and South Asia based on varying degrees of governmental oversight among Asian nations.

Specific projections for 2050 that differ by scenario include: 1) Demand for major energy, mineral, and food commodities, 2) Maps of energy infrastructure and 3) Shipping routes for international minerals trade. Particular attention goes to energy flows to countries like China, India, Japan and South Korea that rely heavily on imports. Projections also address the flow of minerals that are critical to future heavily electrified energy systems, to and from the East Asia region. Contemplating scenarios for 2050 offers help in identifying the consequences of social technology choices and the outcomes from global sustainability mandates in a region that will only grow in its importance to international relations and global material flows.